MADISON, NJ. August 22, 2025 — With the primary election behind us, the race to be the next governor of New Jersey is close, with Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill holding an eight-point lead over Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli among likely voters, 45 percent to 37 percent, and 16 percent still undecided. An experiment embedded in the poll shows the extent to which how the race is framed – around local or around national issues – changes who independent voters favor and could be decisive in a close election.
Though the general election is still a few months off, both Democrats and Republicans have largely lined up behind their candidates: 87 percent of Democrats say that they’ll vote for Sherrill, and 86 percent of Republicans for Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli’s support among Republicans is a little softer than Sherrill’s among Democrats, with 23 percent of Republicans saying that they’ll “probably,” rather than “definitely” vote for their party’s nominee, versus 15 percent among Democrats.
“Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party’s candidate,” said Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, and the Executive Director of the FDU Poll. “While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win.”
The survey included an experiment designed to measure the impact of framing the race around either national or local issues. Respondents were first asked which candidate they would support in the governor’s race. Then, they were randomly assigned to get a series of questions either about local issues like energy, flooding and NJ Transit, or a series of questions about national issues, like President Trump and immigration.
Afterwards, they were again asked about their preference in the governor’s race. None of these questions mentioned the governor’s race, or any stances taken by either candidate. Of course, most voters – especially devoted partisans – aren’t going to change their minds about vote preference after a few minutes of questions, but some do, and the differences reveal the likely effects of framing the election around local or national issues.
Asking questions about local issues didn’t significantly change preferences among Democrats or Republicans, but it increased support for Ciattarelli among independent voters by 7 percentage points, largely by moving voters who initially weren’t sure about their vote into his camp. Similarly, asking questions about national issues decreased Ciattarelli’s support among independents by 4 points, with those voters mostly moving into the “not sure” category.
However, the national issues condition also tended to crystallize support for Ciattarelli among Republicans, moving 3 percent of Republicans from “probable” Ciattarelli supporters to “definite” supporters. Neither condition significantly changed support for Sherrill. Note that these are changes in the second time the governor’s race question was asked, so the overall results reported do not include these effects.
“There’s a reason why Ciattarelli is focusing so much on local issues, and trying not to talk about President Trump,” said Cassino. “The more nationalized this race is, the worse Ciattarelli does overall, even as it helps him a bit among Republicans.” The effects of nationalizing the governor’s race are likely enhanced by the fact that New Jersey voters who approve of Trump aren’t universally in Ciattarelli’s corner, nor are Trump disapprovers fully lining up behind Sherrill.
Fully 81 percent of New Jersey likely voters who say that they approve of the job Trump is doing say that they’ll support Ciattarelli, but 13 percent say that they aren’t sure who they’ll vote for, and four percent say that they intend to support Sherrill. There are more New Jersey voters who disapprove of Trump’s performance in office, but Sherrill has the support of just 77 percent of them, and five percent of Trump disapprovers say that they’ll support Ciattarelli.
“Ciattarelli is walking a fine line with Trump: he needs to consolidate Trump supporters, but do so without making the race too national, or turning off voters who don’t like what’s happening in Washington,” said Cassino. “For Sherrill, on the other hand, there’s no downside to bashing Trump as much as she likes.” While the two candidates are tied among white voters (43 for Sherrill, 42 for Ciattarelli), Sherrill has a substantial lead among Black voters (58 to 20).
Sherrill also has a lead among Hispanic or Latino/a voters (41 to 27), but 27 percent say that they remain undecided. Sherrill has a substantial lead among voters 30 and under (46 to 24), but the candidates are tied (41 to 40) among middle aged voters 45 to 64. Older people are typically the most reliable voters in any election, and the two candidates are close among voters 65 and older, with Sherrill holding a fairly narrow lead of 7 points, 46 to 39.
With information from the Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU)
