BLOOMFIELD, N.J. October 29, 2025 — Early voting data in New Jersey indicates that Democratic candidates, including gubernatorial contender Mikie Sherrill, are maintaining a lead heading into the final stretch of the campaign. According to figures shared by the Sherrill campaign, Democrats currently hold a statewide advantage of more than 201,000 votes as of Monday. Campaign Manager Alex Ball stated that the data reflects strong voter engagement and continued enthusiasm among supporters of Sherrill’s platform.
Across all 21 counties, Democrats are showing higher participation compared with the same period in previous election cycles. The campaign reports that the party is on track to achieve a larger early-vote margin over Republicans than in 2021. Vote-by-mail data shows Democrats with an advantage of more than 195,800 ballots, up from roughly 167,000 at the same point in 2021.
Early in-person voting has also contributed to the Democratic lead. On the first day of early voting, Democrats held a margin of 2,671 votes over Republicans, which increased to more than 5,300 votes after the second day. This represents nearly a doubling of their early in-person vote margin since the opening of the polls. In every county, the percentage of Democratic early votes has risen compared to the same period in 2024, while Republican early-voting percentages have declined in several areas, including Cumberland, Hudson, Mercer, and Sussex counties.
Demographic data also shows notable shifts. The Democratic advantage in early in-person voting stands at 3.28 percent, compared with 1.13 percent at the same point in 2024, nearly tripling the margin. Democrats have also mobilized more infrequent voters — those who did not participate in the last four general elections between 2021 and 2024 — by almost a two-to-one margin over Republicans. Women represent nearly 60 percent of Democratic voters so far, while they account for about 55 percent of the total electorate overall.
Racial and ethnic breakdowns indicate similar patterns. Among Republican early voters, about 1 percent identify as Black and 5 percent as Latino, while among Democratic early voters, those figures rise to 10 percent Black and 10 percent Latino. The campaign notes that this gap reflects stronger participation among Black and Latino voters within the Democratic base.
Regionally, Democrats are also showing competitive numbers in areas traditionally favorable to Republicans. Ocean County currently reports the highest Democratic vote-by-mail return-rate margin, with Democrats returning ballots at a rate 7.56 percent higher than Republicans. In Monmouth County, the Democratic return rate is 3.35 percent higher. In several Republican-leaning counties, Democrats are also reporting higher ballot return rates: 3.64 percent higher in Cape May County, 3.49 percent in Sussex, 3.21 percent in Hunterdon, and 1.49 percent in Warren.
According to the campaign, Democrats have continued to expand their early-voting margins with each update as Election Day approaches.
